Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag News & Rumors

This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' strong start, the Mets' terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize's contract year, and more.

Andrew asks:

I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?

FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we'll go with their 13.5% playoff odds.  The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out.  If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they'll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.

At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals' offense ranks sixth in the NL.  If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it'd be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.

Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team's total:

• Ivan Herrera - 138 wRC+.  The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can't maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real.    If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
• JJ Wetherholt - 132 wRC+.  The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations.  He'll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
• Alec Burleson - 115 wRC+.  He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
• Jordan Walker - 153 wRC+.  If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball.  Maybe that's optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
• Nolan Gorman - 81 wRC+.  He hasn't really hit since 2023, though he's OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year.  If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
• Masyn Winn - 103 wRC+.  He's hitting to expectations.
• Victor Scott II - 39 wRC+.  Scott isn't in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
• Nathan Church - 106 wRC+.  The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors.  I'm not sure I'd want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair.  Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
• Pedro Pages - 106 wRC+.  Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can't keep this up.

Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+.  If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting.  You can't help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.

Bottom line, though: there's something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost.  And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL.  What about the pitching side?

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This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.

Charles asks:

As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.

He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?

Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually.  For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.

My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction.  Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM.  We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance.  But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.

I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip.  I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.

Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration.  With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings.  For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend.  Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.

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This week's mailbag gets into how the Cubs' recent big contracts will age, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s future at second base, the left side of the Brewers' infield, the Yankees' bullpen, and more.

Alex asks:

How overdramatic of a take is this? Within 2 years, all three of Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will be upside down on the value of their deals. I've thought the Bregman deal would age like milk from the jump. Hoerner is solid but it's a lot of money to pay a Luis Arraez that can play a good 2b. And PCA's bat has always been suspect. There will a lot of good defense and PCA will steal some bases, but not a ton else.

I agree with your broader point: the Cubs recently committed to a $431MM to a fairly risky trio.

Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36.  The key passage: "He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too."

Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion.  At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad.  The Cubs are betting it'll be the last year or two.  It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.

Bregman had 42.9 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 31.  That ranks 17th in baseball history for those who played at least 90% of their games at third.  Let's make a list of those near Bregman on that list, excluding Harlond Clift and Bill Bradley for playing too long ago.  Here's their WAR from age 32-36:

• David Wright: 0.5 WAR age 32-36
• Sal Bando: 15.1 WAR
• Robin Ventura: 9.9 WAR
• Ken Boyer: 17.4 WAR
• Graig Nettles: 18.0 WAR
• Matt Williams: 8.8 WAR
• Troy Glaus: 0.0 WAR

Williams and Glaus were linked to PED use, so we might set them aside.  If we do that and assume Bregman will not enter a Wright-level injury spiral, these comps suggests there's actually a decent chance Bregman puts together a 15-WAR Cubs career.  That might put him in "Hall of Very Good" Evan Longoria territory.  More germane to this question, the Cubs would feel they got their money's worth.

Longoria is actually another cautionary tale, as a third baseman who had a better career than Bregman by age 32 but managed only 6.8 WAR from 32-36.  It's also worth considering that Bregman had a 125 wRC+ at age 31; Longo was a league average hitter by that point.  It was his early Rays career that had Longoria on a Hall of Fame track through age 30.

If Bregman can manage something around 5.5 WAR for 2026-27, then I probably wouldn't call his contract upside-down at that point.  You can read up on some good dollars-per-WAR stuff from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs here, but I'll ballpark the market at $12MM per WAR (per year) for a regular-caliber player based on that.  And that's putting aside the insane amount of money big market teams occasionally pay per star player WAR, like the Dodgers with Kyle Tucker.

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This week's mailbag gets into Jordan Walker's hot start, the Cubs' approach to Cade Horton's season-ending injury, the future of the Guardians, and slow starts for the Tigers as well as Braves third baseman Austin Riley.

Sam asks:

I know it way too early to ask this question I cannot help it. Jordan Walker has a 183 wRC+ and is on pace for 39 HRs is he has 456 ABs (ZIPS AB projection). He will cool off a bit—at least. But say he has finally arrived (met his potential, however you want to call it) and settles into being a 130-135 wRC+ and 30-35 HR hitter, how do you think that impacts the Cardinals' short and long term outlook with their rebuild?

Walker, 24 in May, sits at a 181 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances after hitting a solo home run in five trips to the plate Tuesday at Nationals Park.

I pulled up the wRC+ leaderboard last year through April 6th, with a minimum of 40 plate appearances.  Here's a list of the top 20, first showing their wRC+ through April 6th and then showing what it was for that player for the rest of the season.

1. Aaron Judge - 246 / 202
2. Kyle Tucker - 224 / 126
3. Kristian Campbell - 207 / 63
4. Tyler Soderstrom - 206 / 119
5. Jackson Merrill - 201 / 108
6. Spencer Torkelson - 193 / 112
7. Anthony Volpe - 192 / 75
8. Corbin Carroll - 181 / 136
9. Nolan Arenado - 178 / 75
10. Kyle Schwarber - 178 / 151
11. Lars Nootbaar - 171 / 90
12. Alex Bregman - 166 / 121
13. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 164 / 129
14. Sal Frelick - 162 / 110
15. Heliot Ramos - 159 / 103
16. Brendan Donovan - 157 / 115
17. Jose Altuve - 155 / 111
18. Teoscar Hernandez - 153 / 97
19. Eugenio Suarez - 152 / 123
20. Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 150 / 124
21. Jordan Westburg - 149 / 110
22. Shohei Ohtani - 148 / 174
23. Andres Gimenez - 147 / 60
24. Julio Rodriguez - 144 / 125
25. Nico Hoerner - 138 / 108
26. Jackson Chourio - 136 / 109
27. Seiya Suzuki - 135 / 121
28. Lawrence Butler - 134 / 93
29. Rafael Devers - 134 / 135
30. Brice Turang - 134 / 123

Walker came into the 2026 season with 1,039 Major League plate appearances and an 89 wRC+.  Every player is different, but the best comp here might be Torkelson, even though the latter had a little more experience and success in his career to that point.  But I'd say the range of rest-of-season outcomes on Walker remains very wide: this could be nothing, or a full breakout.  Sorry, the truth is often boring.

I also think it's worth asking whether Walker has hit like this in the Majors before.  For that, we use the Stathead Span Finder.  I'm not a huge OPS guy, but that's probably the best "overall offense" stat in this tool.  Walker's OPS is currently 1.014, spanning 11 games and 44 PA.  He has had a couple of streaks at least this good, basically in June and August of his 2023 rookie season:

• 6-6-23 to 6-18-23: Walker hit .395/.477/.789 (1.267 OPS) with 4 HR in 44 PA
• 8-22-23 to 9-5-23: Walker hit .432/.488/.838 (1.326 OPS) in 4 HR in 43 PA

Even in his lousy 2025 season, Walker had a 43-PA July run where he hit .342/.419/.500 (.919 OPS) over 43 PA, though he did not homer during that streak.

What kind of evidence is on the breakout side of the ledger?

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I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes one more time on this week's mailbag. In this edition, we'll look at (very) hypothetical trade possibilities surrounding the Angels' Jose Soriano and the Twins' Joe Ryan, some young Nationals, the recent wave of extensions, and some questions on the outlooks for the Rays and Cardinals. Let's begin!

Casey asks...

OK, you're the Angels (sorry). When do you trade Jose Soriano...to whom...and what would be a likely return??

I'll delve into some hypotheticals involving Soriano's trade value and potential suitors shortly, but first and foremost, I'd caution against the idea of the Angels trading him.

That may sound counterintuitive. After all, the Halos obviously aren't expected to contend this season. They're out to a 3-3 start on the year, but the team's bullpen is comprised of rebound candidates, its position player group is littered with strikeout-prone veterans whose best years are behind them, and the rotation has all of two established big league starters: Yusei Kikuchi and Soriano.

FanGraphs projects the Angels to go 71-85 over the rest of the season. Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA is far more bearish, projecting a 66-96 season even after a decent first week of play. Very few expect this team to compete. (Apparently that's OK for owner Arte Moreno, who recently claimed that winning isn't among the top five priorities for Angels fans. Got it, Arte.)

Beyond that grim outlook, the Angels' farm is one of the game's worst. Anaheim's system briefly trended upward several years ago, but that was short-lived. Frequent development misses and prioritization of players who are close to MLB-ready in the draft -- often in place of higher-ceiling talents who are further from the majors -- have left the team without much of a farm. That leads to repeated dice rolls on former top prospects; the current roster includes names like Oswald Peraza, Yoan Moncada, Alek Manoah, Grayson Rodriguez and Vaughn Grissom.

On the surface, all of that would seem to indicate a rebuild is nigh. The Angels haven't reached the playoffs since 2014. They haven't had a winning season since 2015. This is a team in dire need of a rebuild.

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Happy Opening Night!  Logan Webb and the Giants will host Max Fried and the Yankees at 7:05pm central tonight on Netflix.  Until then, we've got a subscriber mailbag that gets into the Braves' series of core player extensions, which teams have the most concerning injury issues, outlooks for the Rangers and Pirates, and much more.

Matthew asks:

As a Mets fan, several years ago all I heard was how the Braves had built the foundation of their next dynasty by convincing multiple players to sign seemingly below-market deals. Acuña, Albies, Murphy, Riley, Olson, Harris, and probably several others I'm forgetting.

Obviously the team was besieged by injuries when they missed the playoffs last year, but looking back now, how are those contracts holding up? Albies and Riley have regressed, Harris was a tale of two halves last year, Acuña is coming off two serious knee injuries, and Murphy's banner year looks like an outlier.

Giving Acuña a pass because injuries are unpredictable (and he's still an MVP candidate when healthy), are there any of these contracts that you think AA would like a do-over on? Or, since they were seen as being below-market rates, are they still showing positive value?

Alex Anthopoulos has sat atop the Braves' front office for more than eight years now.  He's done a whopping 21 extensions in that time.

The biggest extension went to Austin Riley, who signed for $212MM over ten years.  Had the Braves not done this deal, Riley would've been a free agent this past offseason, theoretically coming off a couple of injury-related down years.  But he'd still be a 29-year-old with a three-year, 16.1 WAR run on his resume, so he probably would've signed a high-AAV opt-out deal.  As it stands, the Braves probably paid a bit above market value for Riley's arbitration years.  That's not a big issue, but from this point forward it's as if they signed him to a seven-year, $154MM free agent deal with an eighth-year club option.  That's not really the type of deal Riley would've signed this past offseason, but the $22MM AAV is low enough where there's room for profit if he bounces back in the next couple years.

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I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag while he has some other commitments. In this week's installment, we'll get into the Mets' bullpen, the Reds' defense and lineup, Paul Skenes' looming arbitration eligibility, the Braves' rotation and Jurickson Profar (among various other tangents and side topics).

Sandy asks:

The Mets lineup seems solid and deep and their rotation is possibly top 5. That leaves the pen and defense. The D is probably average, maybe slightly below but serviceable. What is your take on their pen? Thanks!

The Mets' bullpen is close to set at this point. They have six starters entering the season (Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga), which leaves them seven bullpen spots. None of Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Luis García or Bryan Hudson can be optioned. The Mets have already indicated that righty Huascar Brazobán will have a spot as long as he's healthy, and they similar indicated Tobias Myers would be in the group several weeks ago (before Myers posted a 1.86 ERA and 12-to-4 K/BB ratio in his first 9 2/3 spring frames).

The one spot that's up for grabs seems to be that of Hudson. The journeyman lefty was outstanding for the Brewers in 2024 but struggled in the majors both in 2023 and 2025. The Mets picked him up from the White Sox for cash last month. He's pitched 2 1/3 spring innings and allowed three runs on four hits (one homer) and a walk. It's not an especially compelling showing, particularly when factoring in last year's 4.80 ERA in the majors and 5.97 mark in Triple-A.

Beyond Hudson, candidates for that final spot who are still in major league camp include Richard Lovelady (who's on the 40-man roster), Craig Kimbrel (a non-roster invitee) and perhaps Austin Warren (also on the 40-man). There hasn't been much talk of Warren making the club among the Mets' beat, and he has an option remaining, so he's a long shot. Kimbrel has allowed two runs in five spring innings but also has five walks, two hit batters and only two strikeouts. The Mets seem to habitually acquire Lovelady and jettison him just as frequently; their recent waiver claim of the southpaw was the fifth time they've acquired him in the past calendar year. They clearly like him, but not enough to just give him a dedicated roster spot.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Pirates' third base situation, the best shortstop of 2026, projections for Kazuma Okamoto and Cody Ponce, and thoughts on the Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets.

Don asks:

Is Isaac Paredes the Pirates' best option for a trade upgrade at third base? What might that cost be in prospects/players?

John asks:

​I think the Pirates should give some serious prospects up to acquire CJ; the Bucs seem to be one bat short. What do you think? Will Jared Jones do it?

Jared Triolo is the projected starter at the hot corner for the Pirates.  The 28-year-old won a utility player Gold Glove in 2024 and will play a strong third base.  It's a position where a 96 wRC+ at the plate is average, and Triolo projects around 90.  He was able to cut his strikeout rate last year, but hasn't really shown any power since A-ball.

Triolo is a 2-WAR guy per 650 PA.  Total value-wise, he's arguably on par with offensive-minded additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn.  It's just easier to get excited about a 30-homer bat like Lowe, even when he gives a ton of his value back as one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game.  And Triolo is making near the league minimum, not eight figures.

I went into this exercise thinking Triolo would be one of the game's worst regular third basemen, but I didn't realize how bleak that landscape is.  On a per 650 PA basis - which is quite generous to injury-prone "regulars" such Royce Lewis and Yoan Moncada - Triolo's 2.0 WAR projection from The Bat X ranks 18th.  There's no real reason to think guys like Caleb Durbin or Nolan Arenado will out-perform Triolo this year.

Of the three players directly ahead of Triolo - so close as to be considered a wash - two of them are Alec Bohm and Paredes.  They both seemed somewhat available this winter, and they make a lot more money than Triolo, but they're not clearly better.

I'd say 14 third basemen represent a clear upgrade on Triolo for 2026.  Here they are along with thoughts on whether the Pirates could've acquired them:

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This week's mailbag gets into Jurickson Profar's PED suspension and how the Braves might compensate for it, a potential embarrassment of infield riches for the White Sox, the Mariners' rotation depth, and much more.

Jeff asks:

Where do the go after the Profar suspension news? Who is available and what will the trade price be?

Morris asks:

Thank you again for doing a reader mailbag. I wish my question was coming under better circumstances. Let's get the Braves' elephant out of the way: Jurickson Profar.

We don't need to get into the weeds about the suspension. I'm choosing to be an optimist here, so, I'm going to be polite and talk around the situation. I see this development as lineup flexibility. The Yaz signing looks great, and I think Eli White as the primary bench and LHH platoon-bat is not as bad as some might worry.

But it's also payroll flexibility. We just "saved" $18M in commitments and taxes for this season. How should AA allocate that money? Could we get Giolito or Littell for something around 1-year and $10M? Or is that money now dry powder for a possible trade?

Lastly, should we cut Profar this coming offseason? I'm assuming he's probably done in MLB after this, but I know he'd still be owed for the 2027 part of his deal, but, if I'm AA, I'd happily eat that money to have an opening for a dependable guy who won't present this sort of clubhouse issue.

I remember finding the Braves' signing of Mike Yastrzemski a bit superfluous when it occurred in December, but the move is looking wise given Profar's suspension.  Yaz's projected platoon partner looks to be Eli White.

White spent all of 2025 in the Majors, winning a utility role with the Braves out of camp.  The 31-year-old tallied 271 plate appearances, getting regular duty for about a month until Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from the IL.  About 35% of those PA came against lefties, against whom White managed a league average 100 wRC+ even accounting for five homers against lefties Brent Suter, Jeffrey Springs, Shota Imanaga, Colton Gordon, and Jose A. Ferrer in those 96 PA.

White logged more time in the minors in 2023 and '24.  Baseball-Reference has unfortunately decided to stop providing minor league splits, so I can only tell you how White hit against lefties across all levels combined.  He managed a .281/.337/.494 line against southpaws in 98 PA in 2024, and .258/.365/.581 in 74 PA in '23.  So there's a little bit of data suggesting White can maybe be a decent short side platoon partner for Yastrzemski.  How about outside options?

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This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.

Marshal asks:

Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?

Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.

In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery.  He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.

A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi.  He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season.  We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range.  Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.

We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th.  When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow.  That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason.  The righty professed full health in November.  So why is he still unsigned?

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